Imagine the thrill of a fresh college basketball season just teasing the horizon, and your favorite team leaping from the ashes of last year's struggles straight into the spotlight—NC State fans, this preseason ranking might just make your heart race! But here's where it gets controversial: is this jump a true reflection of talent, or could it be overhyped wishful thinking? Let's dive into the details and unpack what Ken Pomeroy's preseason hoops ratings for 2026 reveal about the Wolfpack.
Ken Pomeroy's highly respected ratings system on his website (kenpom.com) dropped on Sunday, signaling that tip-off time is creeping closer. For the uninitiated, these ratings use advanced stats to predict team strengths, giving fans a sneak peek at how squads stack up. And for NC State, the news is uplifting: they've landed at No. 38 overall, a massive climb from where they ended the 2025 season at a dismal No. 125. This improvement isn't just a minor bump—it's a testament to what could be a transformative year, potentially turning heads and igniting rivalries.
Breaking it down further, this ranking positions NC State as the fifth-best team in the ACC, trailing powerhouse programs like Duke, Louisville, Clemson, and UNC. Interestingly, both Clemson and UNC are also hovering in the 30s, so the gap isn't enormous—think of it as a tight race where small margins could decide big outcomes. To help visualize, Pomeroy's projections paint a picture of NC State boasting a top-40 offense, capable of scoring efficiently and keeping defenses on their toes, paired with a solid top-40 defense that could stifle opponents and force turnovers. Overall, he forecasts a 19-10 record, including an 11-7 mark in conference play, though this doesn't factor in the upcoming Maui Invitational games that are still up in the air—those could add some exciting variables to the mix.
And this is the part most people miss: how does this compare to other expert systems? NC State's spot is almost spot-on with T-Rank (barttorvik.com), which places them at No. 39. However, Torvik's model sees their offense as even stronger than Pomeroy does, while rating the defense as slightly weaker—a subtle difference that might spark debates on whether State is more about explosive scoring or lockdown defense. For another perspective, Evan Miya's ratings (evanmiya.com) boost NC State to No. 27, just edging out UNC. This variation highlights how different analytics can tell slightly contrasting stories, reminding us that no single rating is gospel.
But let's address the elephant in the room: with such a dramatic rise, is NC State poised for a Cinderella run, or are these projections setting fans up for disappointment? Some might argue this ranking underestimates the team's potential, especially given roster improvements, while others could point to past seasons where high preseason hopes fizzled out. It's a classic debate in college hoops—do early ratings predict success, or do they merely hype teams beyond their means?
What do you think, fellow fans and analysts? Does NC State's No. 38 spot feel right, or do you believe they're underrated compared to rivals like UNC? Share your takes in the comments—do you side with Pomeroy's optimism, or do the discrepancies in other systems make you skeptical? Let's get the conversation going!
